Market Analysis

Weekly report (Archive)

Week 14/05/2012

Macroeconomic view:

Last week the uncertainty increased due to the elections' result in Greece and that pushed the Common currency down and US Dollar up. Markets are very defensive and this is something that investors see on stock markets, bonds, commodities and wait to see if Greece will soon have new government or default and exit from euro zone can become fact.       

In France, François Hollande, the Socialist won Nicola Sarkozy in the second round of presidential elections. Hollande officially takes in charge on May 15, while planning the first meeting  abroad to be with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Merkel spoke with Hollande on Sunday afternoon and the German chancellor said the two leaders "will work together" against the debt crisis. "The Franco-German cooperation is crucial for Europe", said Merkel told reporters in Berlin.

On Thursday the political uncertainty in Greece and problems in the Spanish banking industry remain at the forefront concerns about the future of preserving the Euro zone skepticism in the U.S. market. The positive elements but for the labor market with new applications for unemployment to decline last week beating  the estimates for new growth, created a positive climate  overshadowing  concerns temporarily. The new claims fell by 1,000 to 367,000 for the week ended on May 5 according to data, despite analysts' estimates on rising by 5,000 polled by Dow Jones Newswires. Meanwhile, in March the U.S. trade deficit widened despite increased exports to record levels as shown by the figures . In particular, the trade deficit rose 14.1% to 51.83 billion dollars from the revised downwards size of 45.42 billion dollars last month, as announced by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The EURUSD reacted on Friday from the lowest price level of the week (1.2905) and tried to reach once again the price support price level of 1.3000 as until Friday afternoon in a weekly basis losses were more than -1%. 

AUDUSD traded down for second week in a row and the bet for this week will be the price support area of 1.000. On Friday it traded around 1.0039 down by -1.33%   

On the Commodities market last week was very negative with Gold down by almost -4% at $1579.60 from $1643.30, Silver also declined by -6.15% at $28.56 from 30.31 reaching the support area of $25.00 as next price level, while Crude Oil decreased by -2.62% at $95.91. One important reason for the global decline on Commodities was the appreciation of US Dollar index from 79.90 to 80.25 in one week (+1.00%).

This week markets will be focused on the release of ZEW survey as well as the Gross domestic product in German on Tuesday and Retail sales in the US. On Wednesday FED will meet for its minutes and investors wait to see if the Committee will take action to help the economy.

Major exchange currencies:

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Support

1.001960.992450.98584

Resistors

1.014381.022311.03024

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Neutral

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Support

1.29051.28541.2624

Resistors

1.29761.30251.308

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Support

1582.721560.351533.17

Resistors

1612.721632.731671.24